Logistic-Based Population Projection Model
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- Logistic Models, Non-Linear Least Squares, Linear Least Squares, Population Projections, Sustainable Development
- Zhenjing Di; Hui Xu
- The population issue has always been a core issue of social and political stability and economic development, and is a key constraint on socio-economic development and the enhancement of comprehensive national power. A reasonable projection of the population of a region is conducive to the correct understanding of social development trends, and to the publication and implementation of national policies. Therefore, the analysis and optimisation of existing population forecasting models and the improvement of the accuracy of forecasting models are crucial to accurately grasp the population size and structure of each region, to promote population growth in line with the development of social productivity and to optimise the rational allocation of social and economic resources. This paper uses traditional logistic models as the basis, and uses non-linear least squares estimation and linear least squares estimation to estimate and optimise the model parameters. By comparing the predicted and actual values of the three models from 2009 to 2018, the optimal model is derived and applied to the population forecast of a region in Jilin Province, providing a scientific basis for coordinating the sustainable development of the region's population and resources.
Full text: IJISM_957_FINAL.pdf [Bibtex]