Stochastic Modeling of Infectious Disease

Hits: 215
Select Volume / Issue:
Year:
2020
Type of Publication:
Article
Keywords:
Vital Dynamics, Infectious Disease, Stochastic Model, Seasonal Forcing, SIR Model
Authors:
M. D. Alsulami
Journal:
IJISM
Volume:
8
Number:
6
Pages:
262-269
Month:
November
ISSN:
2347-9051
Abstract:
Here we present three versions of an SIR model including death, birth, infection, and recovery terms. We began with an unforced model, which we nondimensionalized and analyzed. It was found to have two steady states: one where the entire population has become susceptible and another with less easily interpretable population levels. The states were mutually exclusive, depending on the infection and recovery terms, and featured slightly different behaviors. We then altered the model in an attempt to resemble data from the CDC. First, a seasonal forcing term was added that had a period of half of a year. With this term, the model produced a profile that resembled a CDC yearly profile in that the infected population of both varied on the order of a year. Next, a stochastic or random model was created that treated each term of our non-dimensionalized equation as random events. A random event was triggered by each time step, creating profiles that appeared to replicate the randomness of CDC data.

About Us

Our Journals

IJECCE
International Journal of Electronics Communication and Computer Engineering
ISSN(Online): 2249 - 071X
ISSN (Print) : 2278 – 4209
www.ijecce.org
Submissions open
IJAIR
International Journal of Agriculture Innovations and Research (ISSN(Online) : 2319 – 1473)
www.ijair.org
Submissions open
IJISM
International Journal of Innovation in Science and Mathematics
ISSN : 2347 – 9051
www.ijism.org
Submissions open
IJEIR
International Journal of Engineering Innovations and Research
ISSN(Online) : 2277 – 5668
www.ijeir.org
Submissions are open.

IJAIM
International Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Mechatronics (ISSN(Online) : 2320 – 5121)
www.ijaim.org
Submissions open
IJRAS
International Journal of Research in Agricultural Sciences
www.ijras.org
Submissions open

Indexed By:

 width= width= width= width= width=