The Northward Migration of Herring and Mackerel

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Year:
2020
Type of Publication:
Article
Keywords:
Similarity Analysis and Prediction Method, Point-by-Point Prediction Model of Sea Water Temperature, Fish Elastomer Model, Benefit Function
Authors:
Yilong Zhou; Hui Xu
Journal:
IJISM
Volume:
8
Number:
3
Pages:
115-123
Month:
May
ISSN:
2347-9051
Abstract:
As global ocean temperatures rise, many sea creatures are migrating north to colder climes and disrupting the economies of fishing companies. This paper studied the variation of sea temperature in the north Atlantic and the distribution of herring and mackerel populations with sea temperature, and proposed a new business model for small fishing companies to reduce economic losses caused by ecological problems. Firstly, established seawater temperature point prediction model based on similarity divergence using the similarity analysis and prediction method, forecasted out the north Atlantic Ocean of seawater temperature distribution based on the model, pearson correlation coefficient is used to evaluate the forecast results. And the deviation correction is made to the forecast data. Based on the size and habits of herring and mackerel, and the swimming speed of the fish was calculated by building an elastomer model. Finally, we can obtain the living position of the two species in 50 years. Secondly, based on seawater temperature point prediction model, calculated in 50 years of arbitrary two adjacent years between the speed of temperature change, get the water temperature change speed threshold, determined the fish movement speed following water temperature, at the same time comparing similarity to ensure that data is reliable. The fishing scope is described in detail from the basic characteristics of fishing boats and port location. Based on the velocity threshold, the time required to migrate the population to a distance beyond the capture of a small fishery company in the best- and worst-case scenarios was predicted to be 4.7 and 2.1 years. In this paper, the mathematical analysis method is applied comprehensively, and the feasibility and effectiveness of the model are verified. Finally, extensive promotion suggestions are put forward.

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