Comparison of ARIMA model and Exponential Smoothing Model on 2014 Air Quality Index in Miyun County, Beijing, China
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- Air Quality Index AQI, Prediction, ARIMA Model, Exponential Smoothing Model, Holt Model
- Renhao Jin; Tao Liu; Sha Wang
- In order to study the changes of air quality index (AQI) in Miyun County, Beijing, China and predict the trend of AQI value, this paper constructed a time-series analysis-A non-stationary trend is found, and the ARIMA (3, 1, 3) model and Holt exponential smoothing model are found to sufficiently model the data. In comparison of these two model fittings, the Holt modelling result are better than ARIMA modelling’s in terms of trend capturing and result MSE, and in this data it is better to apply the Holt model to predict the future AQI values.
Full text: IJISM_475_Final.pdf